Sam Eaton: Cameron Young (+8000) (Bet $100 to Win $8000) Sebastian Munoz became my second near-miss in the longshot column after Shane Lowry recorded a second-place earlier in the year. Thats remarkable and, while it has made his outright odds tough to stomach, I think that the Top 5 odds are more than palatable at this price given that hes done that at an 80% rate so far this season. WebThe 9-hole China Creek Golf Course in Arlington, OR is a municipal golf course that opened in 2003. Joaquin Niemann, Max Homa, J.B. Holmes and Bubba Watson four of the last five champions at Riviera were priced at 50/1 or longer, with Holmes available at 140/1 in some places. I expect the Japanese superstar to remind us that he is still a top-20 player in the world and have a great chance to pick up PGA Tour victory No. OVC Tournament Odds: Just How Vulnerable Is Morehead State? Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc. https://golfweek.usatoday.com/lists/arnold-palmer-invitational-odds-sleeper-picks-tommy-fleetwood/, Mexico, Caribbean, Atlantic islands, Central America, Top 50 Classic Courses in Great Britain & Ireland, Top 50 Modern Courses in Great Britain & Ireland, PGA Tour approves radical schedule changes, reducing fields in elevated events and ending cuts, Drivers used by PGA Tour pros ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. Genesis: Collin Morikawa. Having missed only one cut over the last calendar year, Pendrith will be on my outright card and a core DFS play for me this week. The PGA Tour's best will be back at it this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge near Orlando, Fla., for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. At Bay Hill, course history has proven more repeatable than just about any other course on the PGA TOUR schedule. There are no weaknesses in his game, but perhaps this is a letdown spot and a chance for us to finally get some value on someone down the board (please)? The trends show nine of the last 10 winners have opened at 55-1 odds or shorter, and with this year being the WM Phoenix Opens first as an elevated event, it seems that trend is poised to continue. Getting cheeky with these parlays hasnt been profitable but this one feels too good to pass up. Hes made it through the cut in each trip to TPC Scottsdale, highlighted by a T17 in 2021. Its a coin flip to me who holds the belt at the end of the season, so Ill gladly take the plus money on the player with far better course history. Bay Hill has been a ball-strikers paradise historically, and theres no better ball-striker to go to war with (besides Willy Z) than Kawa. All of that makes Scott a great long shot pick this week. And which golfer in the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field could bring a massive payday of well over 80-1? Another surprise: Tony Finau, a 28-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He will in all likelihood lose strokes putting at Bay Hill this week as well. Hes made the cut in 10 straight starts and has four top-12 finishes. Poston. Given that he also has a win and a T2 in his past three starts here, I think he asserts himself on the leaderboard this week. WMPO: Sungjae Im. The 2014 FedEx Cup champion has long odds this week to the tune of +10000 to win. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also a data analyst and writer for RickRunGood.com, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. Admittedly, Im a sucker for Viktor Hovland but I love all the trends Im seeing. But before we down our tools for the week, look at the odds of the most recent winners of the Genesis Invitational. Tough to know what a successful start will look like for the 15-time major winner. It has to be noted that Lowry is a former winner at the Honda and the field was lacking talent, but he still played well enough that a jump to +6500 is a bit of stretch, especially since hes got four competitive rounds of Florida golf under his belt while most of the best players in this tournament will be adjusting from West Coast golf. Your favorite teams, topics, and players all on your favorite mobile devices. The list of past champions and regular contenders is littered with those who have steadily contended in Majors, THE PLAYERS, or Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup atmospheres. BetMGM Announces Responsible Gaming Advertising Strategy, Ohio Sports Betting Promos: Illinois Fighting Illini at OSU Buckeyes Odds. John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. Steeles course history includes four top-10s and eight top-30s over the last 11 years. Theres been an interesting trend at the API over the past few years. With the $20 million purse on the line, the field is once again loaded with defending champion Scottie Scheffler now joined by Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and 10 of the Top 11 players in the OWGR and 44 of the Top 50 players in the world. In a field as top-heavy as this one with so many elite options, a safe, high floor value player is going to be a must for DFS lineup construction purposes. While Fowler didnt pull off the victory, he played quite well, outperforming his long odds to finish the tournament at 10 under, nine shots off Scottie Schefflers winning score and good enough for a T10, which means if you bet on him to finish in the top 10 as we did, you made a little money. Mitchells ball-striking should put him in the mix here, and I love the Bermuda putting splits. Bet with your head, not over it. He came to Golf Digests betting panel after previously writing for Golf.com, the Score and GolfWRX. Although Willy Z has been pretty brutal on the greens in his career, his lag putting has been notably good, and a great fit for the giant greens, while his short game remains quite underrated. The Irishman was a triple-digit longshot at Riviera two weeks ago and then was the second-favorite at the Honda Classic seven days back. This years purse is set at $20,000,000, and some exciting players are in the field. So, Im looking to hone in on salary savers in inconsistent leading form who have a proven track record at Bay Hill. McIlroy hasnt had his best stuff over the past two weeks, while Rahm has won five times in last eight starts. Stats pulled across Last 24 Rounds unless otherwise noted. Our outright panelwhich consists of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds at Bay Hill; Pat Mayo of DraftKings and FantasyNational.com; Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel; Rick Gehman of RickRunGood.com; Andy Lack of RRG and his Inside Golf Podcast; and your two authorsis all aboard the Willy Z train. His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Pendrith is one of eight players in the field to rank top 15 in both Driving Distance and SG: OTT. Bay Hill Club & Lodge will be the host in Orlando this week as we are readying for another PGA Tour designated event at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Now everybodys hopping off at 65-1? Tommy Fleetwood of England looks on from the fourth hole during the second round of the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on February 10, 2023 in Scottsdale, Arizona. You can see the top 20 in Genesis Invitational betting odds as of Monday afternoon at the bottom of this post, or head over to BetMGM to see the full list of odds and bets for this week. Bradley was runner-up at Bay Hill in 2014 and third in 2013. He is up more than 20 units this season, meaning a profit of more than $2,000 for $100 bettors! PGA TOUR Golf Sleepers: 4 Potential WM Phoenix Open Longshot Picks Golf News Written By John Haslbauer on February 7, 2023 The greatest party in golf is Lets get to our PGA TOUR golf sleepers and longshots for DFS lineups and betting cards. Below, find my favorite value DFS options and longshots for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. In his last five starts and first five tournaments on the PGA Tour in 2023, Rahm has three victories, a Top 3 and a T7 finish. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports. Hes played this event four times and has yet to make the cut. Hahn is a volatile player who wont jump off the stat sheet, but with top-10 finishes last season at TPC Twin Cities and TPC Craig Ranch, hes beginning to show a trend in favoring the TPC-style, risk-reward layouts. Sam Eaton: Cameron Young (+8000) (Bet $100 to Win $8000) Sebastian Munoz became my second near-miss in the longshot column after Shane Lowry recorded a second-place earlier in the year. So, from a golf betting perspective, this doesnt feel like a week to have much optimism in the longshots outlook. 2022 Farmers Insurance Open: Longshot of the week As mentioned before, major winners can be found throughout the field this week. But before we down our tools for the week, look at the odds of the most recent winners of the Genesis Invitational. >. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Steele ranks top-10 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP, which will help him to avoid the persistent hazards that threaten around both the fairways and greens. No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000. Lets get to our PGA TOUR golf sleepers and longshots for DFS lineups and betting cards. Caddie: Cameron Young (+360, DraftKings) As I said above, the course fits what he does well, and these are nice odds for someone who top-10s it a bunch (not this year, which is why its nearly 4-to-1. THE MATERIAL ON THIS SITE MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED, TRANSMITTED, CACHED OR OTHERWISE USED, EXCEPT WITH THE PRIOR WRITTEN PERMISSION OF DISCOVERY GOLF, INC. 2023 DISCOVERY GOLF, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED, Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2023: Our red-hot experts make a consensus bet, thanks to Christopher Powers 30-1 win on Chris Kirk last week, Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge: Challenger/Champion, create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National. The 2013 Masters champions odds-to-win the Genesis are +5500, which are better odds than you usually will find among our long-shot picks. managing editor: Will Zalatoris (22-1, DraftKings) This is inching toward a community bet, and golf betting isnt that easy. The PGA Tour's best will be back at it this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge near Orlando, Fla., for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Mayo: Keith Mitchell (45-1, DraftKings) The number is just too high when you can keep scrolling past his name and find truly elite players who just happen to be in worse current form. McIlroy is intimately familiar with Bay Hill, though, as a past champion (2018) and with no finish worse than T13 in the past five starts here. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. A good way to hedge that is by employing him in OAD. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (50-1, Bet365) Mitchell proved he can hang with the big guns at Riviera, and he didnt have his A game on approach. Sentry TOC: Cameron Young. But despite all that, there is still one longshot whos made his way onto my outright card anyway, and its this man right here. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Collin Morikawa (21-1, FanDuel) As much as Id love to make this a consensus Willy Z week, I have to stick with READ MORE: Back Shohei Ohtani, Japan in World Baseball Classic futures market. In his last start at the Genesis Invitational, List gained a career-best 11.4 strokes on Approach. Since a second-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, Keegan Bradley has tied for 20th at the WM Phoenix Open and missed the weekend at Riviera thanks to an opening-round 75. Prior to Hovland, Mayakoba has been a week for middle- to longshots. Additionally, Youngs short game has been in the toilet since the calendar flipped to 2023. Four of the previous five champions have won with scores around 21- to 22-under par. Top 40 Parlay: Chris Kirk and Tyrrell Hatton to both finish Top 40 (+179). Each of the two rivals had claimed the other was always stealing his ideas. We hate touts. And most importantly, our experts have hit an outright winner in three consecutive weeksthanks to Christopher Powers 30-1 win on Chris Kirk last week. Hes riding a super-hot putter and is the most overvalued of the favorites, per my model. Breaking down the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks for this week at Bay Hill with our best bets, One and Done selection and more PGA Tour expert picks. All betting content is intended for an audience ages 21+. DFS Golf News. Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (+105) over Cameron Young (DraftKings) Fleetwood has a long history of success at Bay Hill and while Cam Young looked good in his first start at API, hes been one of the worst-performing wind players in the field. Gdula: Keegan Bradley (75-1, FanDuel) Bradleys number on FanDuel Sportsbook is a lot longer than youll see in other places. Before you lock in any 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, make sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from golf insider Patrick McDonald. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13. The 2022 U.S. Open begins on Thursday, June 16 at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass. GOLF DIGEST MAY EARN A PORTION OF SALES FROM PRODUCTS THAT ARE PURCHASED THROUGH OUR SITE AS PART OF OUR AFFILIATE PARTNERSHIPS WITH RETAILERS. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Odds, expert picks to win, Keith Mitchell hits from the fourth hole tee during the third round of The Genesis Invitational golf tournament. Build your customFanSided Daily email newsletter with news and analysis onAll Golf and all your favorite sports teams, TV shows, and more. One of the shortest hitters on TOUR, hell enjoy the added distance boost in store at elevation in TPC Scottsdales firm and fast conditions. Hoffmans four top-15 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational over the last five years are especially notable. The winner hasnt been better than 12 under in any of the past four years, with two single-digit under par victors. American Express: Brian Harman. Over the last 20 rounds, Rory is actually gaining 0.2 strokes more tee-to-green than Rahm but the putter has been a bit cold. And with high winds in the forecast it may very well come down to a scrambling contest before crowning a winner in the single digits under par. Hopefully its one of his hot weeks. I think this is a spot where we can fade Rahm, on a course that favors the drawers of the ball. Sanderson Farms Championship: Denny McCarthy. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. Andy Lack, RickRunGood.com and Inside Golf podcast: Will Zalatoris (22-1, DraftKings) Zalatoris answered the lingering injury questions with a fourth-place finish at Riviera, where he gained 3.9 strokes off the tee, four strokes on approach, 2.4 strokes around the green and 2.4 strokes putting. Sentry TOC: Patrick Cantlay. Honda: Chris Kirk. Sara, Drew, the NBC Sports EDGE crew and special guests will provide listeners with unique statistical data, trends and pro Zalatoris has spoken only about the fact that his favorite style of golf is U.S. Open conditions, and with rock-hard greens and extremely thick rough, Bay Hill is about as close to a U.S.-Open-like setup well see all season. Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Cam Davis. Its even more encouraging to see that Conners has found early success on these greens, gaining strokes putting in two of his first three appearances at this event. World No. Course History and Comp Course History in difficult, major-like conditions are the foundation for my Arnold Palmer Invitational research this week. Recent history says a star will win this weekend, but that doesnt mean we cant take a look at three sleepers with a chance to pull an upset. The Argentinian was right in the mix all week and tied for second. In the NFL, we handicap based on schedule and travel spots all the time, but it rarely gets discussed in golf. CJ Cup: Tyrrell Hatton. McIlroy vs. Scheffler, a loaded LPGA field and more to watch in golf this week. One of McClure's favorite prop bet picks this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 is veteran Jason Day to finish in the top-20 of the final leaderboard at +125 odds (risk $100 to win $125). Weve been on a heater in the matchup and top-10 markets, going up more than 27 units this season. Arlington, Oregon 97812. It features long par 3s and par 4s, thick and penal rough, and extremely firm and fast greens. The odds leap from there as Max Homa (+2000), Collin Morikawa (+2100) and Will Zalatoris (+2100) round out the top-six. I was tempted to play Gary Woodland at +12500 in the PGA Championship World No. Robby Shelton finished T21 as a heartbreaker for our Top 20 bet but we were strong in hitting Shane Lowry as a Top 10 and Lowry over Sungjae Im in a matchup. Scroll down to read our best bets for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Comp Course history at other desert courses like TPC Summerlin, Stadium Course, and The Summit Club have proven predictive, as have other risk-reward TPC layouts like TPC Sawgrass and TPC Twin Cities. The short game wont be an issue, and with the expected blustery conditions, Fleetwood is primed to notch his fourth top 10 at Bay Hill in seven starts. Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Kirk (+600, DraftKings) Coming off his first win in eight years, Kirks confidence should be riding high. Sony Open: Hideki Matsuyama. Keith Mitchell has grabbed two top fives in his last three starts. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Collin Morikawa (21-1, FanDuel) As much as Id love to make this a consensus Willy Z week, I have to stick with Morikawa, who came close for me at both Torrey and Riviera. Without any further delay, lets get to our WM Phoenix Open picks with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keegan Bradley (+650, Bet365) Keegan hasnt missed a cut at Bay Hill in his 10 most recent appearances at Bay Hill, which includes four finishes of 11th or better. Last weeks champion and new World No. Honda: Sungjae Im. and he won the 2022 BMW PGA Championship over Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, who both happen to be in the field this week. Although his history at Bay Hill isnt extensive, he did finish T-24 here in 2020, his lone start. It will be the final major of 2021 and the last of the six comprising the 2020-21 PGA Tour Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers! CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick. We warned you guys after Scottie Schefflers win in Phoenix once this panel gets hot, we tend to run hot! Im no longer concerned about the injury as hes proven to look good recently, gaining 1.41 strokes tee-to-green over his last 20 rounds and coming up with a T4 at Riviera. Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Skip to main content. Ill always look Conners way at a ball-strikers course, as the Canadian ranks top-15 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP. Hes been electric at Bay Hill, teeing it up 11 times. As the Florida swing continues, the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the third designated event in four weeks. 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