Causes of WW1: Franco-Russian Alliance. To be sure, this has never been a simple thing: many borders are undefined or contested. Swedish Ministry of Defense, The Defense Ministers of Denmark, Norway, and Sweden Sign Statement of Intent on Enhanced Operational Cooperation, September 24, 2021. Belarus Referendum Approves Proposal to Renounce Nonnuclear Status, Reuters, February 27, 2022. such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force. The TEUs Article 42.7 reads: shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power. Note also that the former refers to armed attack and the latter to armed aggression. Whether this is a production of the French translation or a deliberate broadening is debated. This contributes to the freedom of action of guarantors. They apply to any aggression.74Mira Rapp-Hooper, Absolute Alliances: Extended Deterrence in International Politics (doctoral dissertation, Columbia University, 2015), Columbia University Academic Commons (website), https://doi.org/10.7916/D85Q4TWX. Bruno Simma et al., Third Edition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), 1409. Modern alliances are defensive in nature and, as a result, are more resilient and durable than aggression-oriented pacts of the distant past. . The new AUKUS trilateral security partnership set up in September 2021 brings together Canberra, London, and Washington. He was not alone. The consolidation of the Western system of alliances in Asia was made even stronger in 2021, when Australian and Japanese officials made it clearer that their countries would support the United States in a conflict over Taiwan.43Reuters, Inconceivable Australia Would Not Join US to Defend Taiwan: Australian Defence Minister, November 13, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/ world/asia-pacific/inconceivable-australia-would-not-join-us-defend-taiwan-australian-defence-2021-11-12/; Reuters, Japan Deputy PM Comment on Defending Taiwan if Invaded Angers China, July 6, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-aso-peaceful-solution-desirable-any-taiwancontingency-2021-07-06/; and Jeffrey W. Hornung, Taiwan and Six Potential New Years Resolutions for the US-Japanese Alliance, War on the Rocks, January 5, 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/taiwan-and-six-potential-new-years-resolutions-for-the-u-s-japanese-alliance/. The growth of the Western system of military alliances and partnerships is partly a consequence of the radicalization of Russian and Chinese policies. To be sure, Russia claims that NATOs role in the ex-Yugoslavia or in Libya is the proof of its offensive nature, but such compellence (i.e., coercive) operations were designed to protect civilians, not, say, to invade a country. Alan K. Henrikson [i] Security treaty between Australia, New Zealand and the United States (1951). Significance: Entangling Alliances one of the five reason of World War 1. dealing with, FOREIGN SERVICE. Jesse C. Johnson and Brett Ashley Leeds, Defense Pacts: A Prescription for Peace?,. Two Asian countries that are members of the Manila Pact are also covered by other US commitments (the Philippines by treaty, Thailand through the Rusk-Thanat Communiqu of 1962). A second, broader definition includes close defense partnerships which do not include a security guarantee but may nevertheless be interpreted by at least one of the partiesan ally or an adversaryas quasi alliances. entangling definition: 1. present participle of entangle 2. to cause something to become caught in something such as a net. The first ever in-person summit of the leaders of the four countries was held in September 2021. United States | New Zealand Council, Washington Declaration on Defense Cooperation, US|NZ Council website, June 19, 2012. Jeremiah 2:23 How are you able to say, I am not unclean, I have not gone after the Baals? Two additional arguments will make this clearer. US attitudes have also led to consolidation of military ties between its own allies and friends, either to diversify security portfolios or to hedge against US retrenchmentinternal hedging, given that all the actors belong to the same US-led alliance system. Transcript. Clear-cut cases of aggression triggering security guarantees include the following scenarios: a Russian attack against Poland, the Baltic states or Turkey; a North Korean offensive against South Korea; a Chinese operation against Taiwan; a China-Japan fight over the Senkaku islands; a North Korean strike against Japan; a China-Philippines war in the South China Sea; and an Iranian attack against a Gulf State or Israel. ensnare. This definition of alliance also excludes collective security organizations such as the Organization for the Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), as well as groupings such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).10Vali Kaleji, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Is No New Warsaw Pact or Eastern NATO,National Interest, November 13, 2021, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/shanghai-cooperation-organization-no-%E2%80%98new-warsaw%E2%80%99-or-%E2%80%98easternnato%E2%80%99-196138. More recently, just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Poland, and Ukraine are seeking to form a new security and defense partnership.64Matthias Williams and Gabriela Baczynska, Britain, Poland, and Ukraine in Cooperation Talks over Russian Threat, Reuters, February 1, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/britain-poland-ukraine-preparing-trilateral-security-pact-kyiv-says-2022-02-01/. Finally, the Biden administration has clearly confirmed that it would defend Taiwan against mainland China, rhetorically putting the island on a par with countries protected by treaty-based obligations.42David Brunnstrom, US Position on Taiwan Unchanged Despite Biden Comment: Official, Reuters, August 20, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/asiapacific/us-position-taiwan-unchanged-despite-biden-comment-official-2021-08-19/. Branislav Miko, NATO between Exclusivity and Inclusivity: Measuring NATOs Partnerships, Czech Journal of International Relations 56, no. Intra-European defense solidarity was further reinforced by two new bilateral defense clauses: one between Germany and France through the Aachen Treaty of 2019 (which includes a particularly strong mutual commitment), and another between Greece and France through a strategic partnership agreement signed in 2021.35John Psaropoulous, Greece Ratifies Landmark Intra-NATO Defence Pact with France,Al Jazeera(website), October 7, 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/ news/2021/10/7/greece-ratifies-intra-nato-defence-pact-with-france. [ii] South East Asia Collective Defense Treaty (1954). See Bruno Tertrais, Article 5 of the Washington Treaty: Its Origins, Meaning and Future, Research Paper no. European countries remained bound together by the Modified Brussels Treaty of 1954 until it was subsumed in the Lisbon Treaty. In 2010, the CTSOs mutual defense provisions were significantly reinforced to include other forms of armed attack that threaten the security, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty of the parties.53Collective Security Treaty, Collective Security Treaty Organization, https://en.odkb-csto.org/documents/documents/dogovor_o_kollektivnoy_ bezopasnosti/; Presidency of Russia, Protocol on Amendments to the Collective Security Treaty Has Been Submitted to the State Duma for Ratification, August 31, 2011, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/12507/print. Providing expertise and building communities to promote transatlantic leadership and a strong Europe in turbulent times. See Clara Sophie Cramer and Ulrike Franke, eds., Ambiguous Alliance: Neutrality, Opt-Outs, and European Defence, Essay Collection, European Council on Foreign Relations, June 2021, https://ecfr.eu/publication/ambiguous-alliance-neutrality-opt-outs-and-european-defence/.). This is also true for some bilateral defense commitments such as the Franco-Greek one of 2021, which includes the condition that both parties must jointly find that an armed aggression has taken place. To be sure, faced with the prospect of their protector getting involved in a distant contingency, they could welcome the effective exercise of security guarantees since it would validate in their eyes the one they benefit from. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) considers that its characterization requires a relatively large scale . There was a variety of causes that influenced the beginning of World War I, but the primary causes consisted of three major crisis areas which eventually led to the creation of World War I: Balkan nationalism, entangling alliances, and militarism as welll as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. I will compress them within the narrowest compass they will bear, stating the general principle, but not all its limitations.Equal and exact justice to all men, of whatever state or persuasion, religious or political:peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none:the support of the state . Author Jason W. Davidson examines these alliances to shed light on their nature and what they reveal about the evolution of American power. Just because they are nations that might align with our values doesn't mean we have to be militarily committed to them. The Article 5 language was a compromise between the language of the Rio and Brussels treaties. By contrast, they have invaded or encroached upon nonprotected countries and disputed territories. This is also true for some bilateral defense commitments such as the Franco-Greek one of 2021, which includes the condition that both parties must jointly find that an armed aggression has taken place. Why is that so? A classic case of this for the United States was Vietnam. The same goes for concepts such as an alliance of democracies once promoted by US President Joe Biden.11Joe Biden, Democracy in an Age of Authoritarianism, Remarks by then-Vice President Biden, Copenhagen Democracy Summit, June 22, 2018, https://www.allianceofdemocracies.org/speech-by-joe-biden/. Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea, October 1, 1953. After three decades of absence, France rejoined NATOs military command structure in 2009. Since the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Seas entered into force in 1994, many states have made irreconcilable claims regarding their territorial waters as well as economic exclusion zones (EEZs, which are not part of national territories but where national forces are often present). This was made clear by the ICJs rulings: an accumulation of minor events could be tantamount to an armed attack.98Zemanek, Armed Attack. (NATO adopted it in 2021 for cyberattacks and there is thus no reason why it could not use it also for militia attacks.99Brussels Summit Communiqu Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the North Atlantic Council in Brussels.) The problem with this notion, which is also applicable to any escalation scenario starting with a minor incident, is that there is no obvious threshold for declaring that security guarantees are at play. In both cases, however, clarifications were given by the protector. 2020-71, Amsterdam Center for International Law No. But it remains by no means certain that alliance members would easily agree on triggering security guarantees for political interference or nonovert attack of militias or nonuniformed forces, in Europe or in Asia (the little blue men of civilian Chinese boats). Using Quad to Build Indo-Pacific NATO,, Ash Jain, Matthew Kroenig, and Jonas Parello-Plesner, Atlantic Council US-India Digital Economy Task Force. In 2007, Rajan Menon predicted the end of alliances.3Rajan Menon,The End of Alliances(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007). Using Quad to Build Indo-Pacific NATO,Hindu, October 13, 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/news/ international/china-fm-calls-us-indo-pacific-strategy-a-huge-security-risk/article32844084.ece. What does entangling expression mean? Instead, we should focus on cultivating alliances that help us out militarily and let us reduce our defense burden. Ensuring stability also requires that governments take a closer look at how their burgeoning security partnerships are perceived by potential adversaries. Separately, UK forces participate in UN peacekeeping forces on the island. NATOs Article 5 was invoked for the first time ever. The Alliance System played an important role in leading to the First World War mainly because it divided the European powers into two rival military camps, the Triple Alliance and the Triple Entente by 1907. The emerging system is complex, and policymakers would do well to think through possible future crises by imagining how the various moving parts would end up interacting. After the 1991 Gulf War, France signed agreements that include defense clauses with Kuwait (1992), Qatar (1994, 1998), and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (1995, 2009). Significance: Entangling Alliances one of the five reason of World War 1. This was for the first time confirmed at the presidential level by Barack Obama, orally, in 2014, and then more solemnly by Donald Trump, in writing, in 2017.39Brian Victoria, The Shifting US Position over the Senkaku Islands, East Asia Forum, November 13, 2020, https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/13/theshifting-us-position-over-the-senkaku-islands/. Most of the time, they do not compel allies to use military force, and where applicable they mention national restrictions such as the constitutional provisions and processes (US-Japan) or the specific character of the security and defense policy of certain member States (Treaty on European Union, or TEU88This is known as the Irish clause and is designed to accommodate the specific policies of Austria, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Malta, and Sweden. Does alliance proliferation reduce or increase the risk of war? New Atlanticist This, in turn, facilitates economic cooperation and growththe best examples being the recovery of Europe, Japan, and South Korea after 1945. The NATO treaty, which defines at length its scope of application, concerns only Europe and North America. This includes Alaska but not Hawaii and US territories in the Pacific.89The North Atlantic Treaty, April 4, 1949, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm; see Tertrais, Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. The US-Japan treaty covers the territories under the administration of Japan.90The treaty of mutual cooperation and security between Japan and the United States, January 19, 1960, https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/q&a/ ref/1.html. Reuters, Inconceivable Australia Would Not Join US to Defend Taiwan: Australian Defence Minister, November 13, 2021, Japan, Australia Sign Defense Pact to Counter Chinas Rise,. Abstract. Davidson's definition of neoclassical realism is that the theory "argues that in an anarchic international system, states' behavior is driving by the distribution . Expert Alexander Lanoszka calls the South-East Asia Treaty a zombified alliance. See Alexander Lanoszka,Military Alliances in the Twenty-First Century(London: Polity Press, 2022), 176. Another problematic example is the European Union. America's Entangling Alliances offers a corrective to long-held assumptions about US foreign policy and is relevant to current public and academic debates about the costs and benefits of America's allies. And today more than ever, red lines are drawn over gray areas. Kathleen J. McInnis, The Competitive Advantages and Risks of Alliances, Heritage Foundation, October 30, 2019, Michael Beckley, The Myth of Entangling Alliances: Reassessing the Security Risks of US Pacts,. For example, it is not certain how NATO, with its thirty members, could obtain consensus to a policy of aggression.86Absent consensus, nothing would prevent the collective exercise of self-defenseespecially since NATOs supreme commander in Europe is also commander of US Forces in Europehowever, collective NATO-only assets would not be accessible. The difference is qualitative more than quantitative: some security partners cooperate more than formal defense allies. And if war erupted somewhere, what would be the risks of escalation? Still, drawing red linesthe essence of security guaranteesis a form of art.95On the notion of red lines, see Bruno Tertrais, The Diplomacy of Red Lines,Recherches & Documents, no. All this helps explain why alliances endure today. Even in such cases, the United States had many interests at stakes, not just those related with reputation. Congressional Research Service, The Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance and the Crisis in Venezuela, Insights (series), Version 8, Updated December 11, 2019, Mark S. Bell and Joshua D. Kertzer, Trump, Psychology, and the Future of US Alliances, in, Khang Vu, Why China and North Korea Decided to Renew a 60-year-old Treaty,. Alliances also contribute to keeping the peace internally. The government chooses its foreign affairs policy to safeguard the interests of the nation and its citizens. "Alliances are at the center of the lively debate about US grand strategy, and that debate is more relevant than it has been in decades. When major global news breaks, the Atlantic Councils experts have you covereddelivering their sharpest rapid insight and forward-looking analysis direct to your inbox. See Clara Sophie Cramer and Ulrike Franke, eds., Ambiguous Alliance: Neutrality, Opt-Outs, and European Defence, Essay Collection, European Council on Foreign Relations, June 2021. A legitimate question mark could exist for Turkish behavior in recent years, but given the tensions between Ankara and its alliesnotably the United Statesit is unlikely that It played a role. The Trump presidency also highlighted the possibility of a nightmare scenario for Europeans: what if the United States refused to fulfill its promise to defend them in case of Russian aggression? What exactly does armed attack mean in a century of hybrid threats, from election interference and political manipulation to cyberattacks, frozen conflicts, little green men in Europe, and land reclamation in Asia?96In international law, armed attack authorizes self-defense and differs from mere aggression. The French language obfuscates the difference between the two by using the expression agression arme for armed attack. In its landmark 1986 Nicaragua decision, the ICJ stated that armed attack may include the sending or on behalf of a State of armed bands, groups, irregular or mercenaries provided that the adverse State has effective control over them.97Karl Zemanek, Armed Attack,Max Planck Encyclopedia of Public International Law(Oxford: Oxford University Press, October 2013), https://opil.ouplaw.com/view/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e241. 1 / 21. definition: military is the goal. Alliances also have a pacifying effect: they damp the risk of open conflict among members. In 2008, Parag Khanna thought that states now operated in a world of alignments, not alliances.4Paragh Khanna,The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order(New York: Random House, 2008). Defensive alliances are not always upheld: a recent academic analysis found that they are honored only 41 percent of the time.116Molly Berkemeier and Matthew Fuhrmann, Reassessing the Fulfillment of Alliance Commitments in War,Research & Politics5, no. Five EU countries have, to various degrees, a neutral or nonaligned status and Denmark had an opt-out policy which it will abolish on July 1 following a referendum vote. when all the countries started having alliances, it pulled a lot of people into the war. June 9, 2015. 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